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Schmidt 5 September
READ: Ned's Random Gold Thoughts
can be found at the bottom.

Ned's Random Gold Thoughts

Our Basic Position is BULLISH!


Emailed to subscribers on 17 September 2017

Value View Gold Report Signals Update

$Gold: $1320
$Silver: $17.55
  
15 Sep(FRI): Gold Short-Term Oscillator Buy Signal

18 Sep(MON): Silver Short-term Oscillator Buy Signal

19 Sep(TUE): FOMC meeting begins

20 Sep(WED): FOMC Policy Announcement

21 Sep(THU): Gold Intermediate Term Oscillator Buy Signal Projected

22 Sep(FRI): Silver Intermediate Term Oscillator Buy Signal Projected

If Gold does turn up on FOMC meeting, intermediate signals likely to be abrogated.

As we have observed over time, FOMC meetings have been
associated with positive times to buy Gold.
Price of Gold is often pushed down in anticipation of these events by juveniles traders.
A similar development seems to be unfolding around this week’s FOMC meeting.

Note that Board of Federal Reserve has only 4 sitting members
out of 7 prescribed by law.
One of those is retiring in October.
One appointment is in process to replace retiring individual.
President has named that one candidate and has to name
three more to get board to full size.

Given the Board situation and uncertain economic consequences of
Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, do not expect an interest rate increase.
That should be positive for Gold.

Best guess would be Gold makes low on Monday or Tuesday,
but most likely Tuesday morning.

Will FOMC announce beginning of balance sheet unwinding?
Doubtful given the board situation and with Yellen’s term
as Chairman ending in February 2018.

Note that when FOMC does begin unwinding of balance sheet may
be many uninformed comments about “shrinking” the quantity
of dollar money, and how dollar should appreciate.
A sale of bonds by the Federal Reserve to a bank
has NO impact on U.S. money supply.
Bank would pay for bonds through its Federal Reserve account.
Banks currently have more than $2 trillion of excess reserves with which
to buy bonds. Those reserves are NOT part of the money supply.


10 September 2017

$Gold: $1,346
Change Year Ago: + 1%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,246 + $100
Short-Term Oscillator: 100% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator: 96% Over Bought
Second Important Low(15 Dec 16)  $1,123 +20%
Bear Market Low(17 Dec 15)   $1,046 +29%

$Silver:   $17.90
                         % Change Year Ago: - 8%                        
200-Day Moving Averag: $17.13 +$0.77
Short-Term Oscillator: 95% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator: 92% Over Bought

Some are still asking the wrong question. The real question to be asked:

What can keep Gold from going up?

Hurricane Harvey, with support from Irma, means the Federal Reserve will not
raise interest rates this year, and may not in opening months of 2018. That reality
means the dollar has no support. While dollar could rally from an over
sold condition, that lack of interest rate support remains dominant.

Gold continues above the 200-day moving average. Intraday high of importance
is $1,358. That price put Gold up 22% from the second important low, or confirming
low, of December 2016. That action reconfirms an ongoing bull market in Gold.

BUT, always remember all market moves have corrections.


17 August 2017

$Gold: $1,286
Change Yea  Ago: - 5%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,231 + $54
Short-Term Oscillator: 84% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator: 83% Over Bought
Second Important Low(15 Dec 16)  $1,123
Bear Market Low(17 Dec 15)   $1,046

$Silver:   $17.00
% Change Year Ago: -13%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.04 -$0.04
Short-Term Oscillator: 84% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator: 83% Over Bought

Minutes of last FOMC meeting were released this past week. Seems that
committee is split between those that want to raise US interest rates and those
that do not. Muddying that decision is the likelihood that Federal Reserve will
announce implementation of plans to unwind its balance sheet
at the September meeting.

Probably do not want to do both. FOMC is somewhat worried about the
unwinding of the balance sheet. Raising interest rates at the same time
probably has bothered some.
Anyway, this unwillingness to raise rates
is a Pro-Gold policy.

Gold did move higher on release of those minutes. Gold continues to trade
above 200-day moving average. Gold should also gain support from an
ongoing weak dollar.

Silver trading at 200-day moving average. Sellers have come into the
market as Silver approaches that moving average. That trading strategy
usually fails. When Silver rises above 200-day moving average it should
move higher with some strength.


16 July 2017

Using the data from US CFTC COT report is a lot like reading chicken guts at midnight.

BUT, sometimes the numbers approach extremes of interest.

$Gold bear market bottom was 17 Dec 2015 at $1,047.
$Silver bear market bottom was 14 Dec 2015 at $13.55.

From 11 July COT report.

Commercials net short position 7.4mm ounces.
Down from net short of 37mm ounces in July 2016.
Gold $1,354 on 8 July 2016.

Low for net short position 1.9mm ounces 29 Dec 2015 as Gold made bear market
bottom.

Net Silver long position of large speculators was 14m contracts.
Low for their Silver net long position was 27 July 2015 at 4.2m contracts.
Silver =$14.5.

While none of this predicts THE day, above does suggest that
prices may be at extreme lows.


7 July 2017

We have updated both of web cast at top of page.

We have updated the samples of the newsletteer.

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still available. Use Contact button at top.


6 June 2017

$Gold: $1,292
% Change Yea  Ago: + 4%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,235 + $57
Short-Term Oscillator:  98% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator: 95% Over Bought
Second Important Low(15 Dec 16)  $1,123
Bear Market Low(17 Dec 15)   $1,046

$Silver:   $17.65  
% Change Year Ago: + 7%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.40 +$0.25                
Short-Term Oscillator: 97% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator: 89% Over Bought

With U.S. dollar increasingly breaking down versus other currencies, Gold
has gained some strength. Add to that weakness the global tensions in
Middle East and Korea gives more support. Gold went through last intraday
high on Tuesday. New intraday high to watch $1,296.70.

While some weakness could develop going into FOMC announcement on
14 June, background is good for Gold. One trade above $1,300 would stir
some traders to action.

Silver intraday high to watch is $18.73, which goes back to February.

Posted new web cast at top.

                
22 May 2017

$Gold: $1,255
% Change Yea  Ago: + 0%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,239 + $16
Short-Term Oscillator:    92% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator: 66% Neutral
Second Important Low(15 Dec 16)  $1,123
Bear Market Low(17 Dec 15)   $1,046

$Silver:   $16.80  
% Change Year Ago: + 2%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.55 -$0.75                
Short-Term Oscillator: 78% Slightly Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator:    38% Slightly Over Sold

Is the U.S. to face a constitutional crisis? Left wing elements led by the WP
and NYT are attempting what appears to be an effort to overthrow the elected
government of the U.S. Trump is the elected President, and efforts to unseat
him seem fully committed. If ever a reason existed to own Gold, this set of
circumstances seems to scream for Gold. While we do not believe the left wing usurpers
will be successful, the mere hint of the possibility argues for Gold.

Markets were shaken this past week by the actions of teenagers trading the
stories in the WP and NYT. While none of them had the backing of any serious
facts, markets traded up and down. Gold ended the week up and back above
the 200-day moving average.

For second week in a row the breadth, advances minus declines, of the U.S.
equity market was negative, and that is a sign of internal weakness in the market.
Attention should start turning to the 14 June interest rate increase by FOMC. That
increase will be number four. To date the Street has “spit in the eye of U.S. rate
increases” as it continues to push fantasy stocks to unstable highs. The real
question: How much money will be lost by investors in the NASDAQ 100
as U.S. interest rates rise?



              

Recent web cast at this link:

Schmidt 9 September  Segment 3
GOLDMONEY

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