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Recent web cast at this link:

Schmidt 6 July
READ: Ned's Random Gold Thoughts
can be found at the bottom.

Ned's Random Gold Thoughts

Our Basic Position is BULLISH!

17 August 2017

$Gold: $1,286
Change Yea  Ago: - 5%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,231 + $54
Short-Term Oscillator: 84% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator: 83% Over Bought
Second Important Low(15 Dec 16)  $1,123
Bear Market Low(17 Dec 15)   $1,046

$Silver:   $17.00
% Change Year Ago: -13%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.04 -$0.04
Short-Term Oscillator: 84% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator: 83% Over Bought

Minutes of last FOMC meeting were released this past week. Seems that
committee is split between those that want to raise US interest rates and those
that do not. Muddying that decision is the likelihood that Federal Reserve will
announce implementation of plans to unwind its balance sheet
at the September meeting.

Probably do not want to do both. FOMC is somewhat worried about the
unwinding of the balance sheet. Raising interest rates at the same time
probably has bothered some.
Anyway, this unwillingness to raise rates
is a Pro-Gold policy.

Gold did move higher on release of those minutes. Gold continues to trade
above 200-day moving average. Gold should also gain support from an
ongoing weak dollar.

Silver trading at 200-day moving average. Sellers have come into the
market as Silver approaches that moving average. That trading strategy
usually fails. When Silver rises above 200-day moving average it should
move higher with some strength.



16 July 2017

Using the data from US CFTC COT report is a lot like reading chicken guts at midnight.

BUT, sometimes the numbers approach extremes of interest.

$Gold bear market bottom was 17 Dec 2015 at $1,047.
$Silver bear market bottom was 14 Dec 2015 at $13.55.

From 11 July COT report.

Commercials net short position 7.4mm ounces.
Down from net short of 37mm ounces in July 2016.
Gold $1,354 on 8 July 2016.

Low for net short position 1.9mm ounces 29 Dec 2015 as Gold made bear market
bottom.

Net Silver long position of large speculators was 14m contracts.
Low for their Silver net long position was 27 July 2015 at 4.2m contracts.
Silver =$14.5.

While none of this predicts THE day, above does suggest that
prices may be at extreme lows.


7 July 2017

We have updated both of web cast at top of page.

We have updated the samples of the newsletteer.

Free three month trial subscriptions
still available. Use Contact button at top.


6 June 2017

$Gold: $1,292
% Change Yea  Ago: + 4%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,235 + $57
Short-Term Oscillator:  98% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator: 95% Over Bought
Second Important Low(15 Dec 16)  $1,123
Bear Market Low(17 Dec 15)   $1,046

$Silver:   $17.65  
% Change Year Ago: + 7%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.40 +$0.25                
Short-Term Oscillator: 97% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator: 89% Over Bought

With U.S. dollar increasingly breaking down versus other currencies, Gold
has gained some strength. Add to that weakness the global tensions in
Middle East and Korea gives more support. Gold went through last intraday
high on Tuesday. New intraday high to watch $1,296.70.

While some weakness could develop going into FOMC announcement on
14 June, background is good for Gold. One trade above $1,300 would stir
some traders to action.

Silver intraday high to watch is $18.73, which goes back to February.

Posted new web cast at top.

                  
22 May 2017

$Gold: $1,255
% Change Yea  Ago: + 0%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,239 + $16
Short-Term Oscillator:    92% Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator: 66% Neutral
Second Important Low(15 Dec 16)  $1,123
Bear Market Low(17 Dec 15)   $1,046

$Silver:   $16.80  
% Change Year Ago: + 2%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.55 -$0.75                
Short-Term Oscillator: 78% Slightly Over Bought
Intermediate Oscillator:    38% Slightly Over Sold

Is the U.S. to face a constitutional crisis? Left wing elements led by the WP
and NYT are attempting what appears to be an effort to overthrow the elected
government of the U.S. Trump is the elected President, and efforts to unseat
him seem fully committed. If ever a reason existed to own Gold, this set of
circumstances seems to scream for Gold. While we do not believe the left wing usurpers
will be successful, the mere hint of the possibility argues for Gold.

Markets were shaken this past week by the actions of teenagers trading the
stories in the WP and NYT. While none of them had the backing of any serious
facts, markets traded up and down. Gold ended the week up and back above
the 200-day moving average.

For second week in a row the breadth, advances minus declines, of the U.S.
equity market was negative, and that is a sign of internal weakness in the market.
Attention should start turning to the 14 June interest rate increase by FOMC. That
increase will be number four. To date the Street has “spit in the eye of U.S. rate
increases” as it continues to push fantasy stocks to unstable highs. The real
question: How much money will be lost by investors in the NASDAQ 100
as U.S. interest rates rise?



8 May 2017

Cramer said one might need to "take mind altering
drugs" to understand Tesla". That is probably true of most
high flying U.S. technology/internet fantasy stocks.

Link to Cramer on drugs & Tesla
                
                
7 May 2017

$Gold: $1,228
% Change Yea  Ago: - 4%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,244   - $16
Short-Term Oscillator:    0% Deeply Over Sold
Intermediate Oscillator:  4%  Oversold
Second Important Low(15 Dec 16)  $1,123
Bear Market Low(17 Dec 15)   $1,046

$Silver:   $16.30  
            % Change Year Ago: - 6%                        
200-Day Moving Average: $17.70 -$1.40
Short-Term Oscillator: 1% Over Sold
Intermediate Oscillator:    1% Over Sold

Appears the markets decided to digest the June U.S. rate increase in May.
FOMC announcement on Wednesday was somewhat of a “shock” to the markets.
Essentially what it said was that U.S. interest rates were going up in June. So,
what happened was that metals market took that as a rate increase announcement.
Shock to Gold and Silver was dramatic.

Both markets are now as over sold as they were before the December 2016 U.S.
rate increase. That low became the second major low. After each of the three
previous U.S. rate increases $Gold has risen. Each time Gold and Silver were
deeply oversold as teenage traders panicked, and sold. They were wrong each
time, and likely will be wrong again.

Our buy signal last week was a little earlier as we did not perceive the way
market would interpret the FOMC’s announcement. The extremely over sold
condition should put in place another major low for Gold.  

Some further selling may take place in early part of week on French election,
regardless of outcome. But, whatever selling takes place should be used to add
to Gold holdings.



Recent web cast at this link:

Schmidt 7 July  Segment 3
GOLDMONEY

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