The Value View Gold Report
The premier newsletter on Gold. Published monthly and delivered to you by email.
We cover Gold in U.S. $, Canadian $, Euros, British Pounds, Chinese Yuan, and Indian Rupee.
Analytical facts only, to aid you in buying Gold.

We are Bullish on Gold! We turned bullish in 2015 when most analysts were still bears!
OUR FORCAST IS NOW $GOLD AT $1,900-2,100 IN 2017.

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The Value View Gold Report click on this link:      Value View Gold Report  
The Value View Gold Report
"Disciplined Analysis of Gold"

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Our latest Webcast at this link(5 May):
Schmidt Webcast
READ: Ned's Random Gold Thoughts
can be found at the bottom.

Ned's Random Gold Thoughts

Our Basic Position is BULLISH!




20 May 2016

$Gold: $1,252
% Change Year Ago: +4%
200-Day Moving Average: $1,162   +$90
Short-Term Oscillator:   12%   Oversold    Buy Signal 23 May
Intermediate Oscillator:   28%   Moving to Oversold

$Silver:   $16.45
% Change Year Ago: -4%
200-Day Moving Average: $15.18   +$1.27
Short-Term Oscillator:   7%   Oversold    Buy Signal
Intermediate Oscillator:   23%   Moving to Oversold

% Change Year Ago For Comparison:
S&P 500:  -3%
NASDAQ 100:  -3%   

Teenage traders trotted out again the notion that the Federal Reserve will raise interest
rates in June, and the dollar will soar. Per this group the FOMC would have already
raised rates “a dozen times”. This simplistic thinking is what we expect out of these
traders. However, the whole concept of the relationship of a currency value and
interest rates deals with real interest rates, not nominal. Latest reading on U.S.
Median CPI from FRB Cleveland is that over the past year the Median CPI has risen
2.45%. U.S. interest rates will still be deeply negative even if FOMC raise
rates by 0.25% in June. Longer term fundamentals point to a weaker dollar.

As a consequence of the thrashing about in markets by these teenage traders, Gold and
Silver were sold off. Short-term oscillator giving a buy signal on both Gold and Silver.
That may be all that is needed. Intermediate oscillator is moving to oversold next week,
but may not get there.

Recorded a webcast with Cris Sheridan for www.financialsense.com Should be on site
in next few days.


6 May 2016

$Gold:   $1,285
One Year % Change:   +8.5%
200-Day Moving Average: $1,155   +$130  
Intermediate Signal Oscillator: 81%   Overbought
Short-Term Signal Oscillator: 77%   Overbought

$Silver:   $17.35
One Year % Change:   + 7%
200-Day Moving Average: $15.09  +$2.26  
Intermediate Signal Oscillator:   61%   Overbought             
Short-Term Signal Oscillator:   43%   Overbought

For comparison one year % change:
NASDAQ 100   -2%
S&P 500   -2%

On balance, the dollar has been declining for weeks. It had reached a seriously
over sold condition against the 12 currencies we follow. While fundamentally that
is the correct direction for the dollar, it was in need of a bounce to correct that
over sold condition. That is what has been happening this week, and that has
temporarily capped Gold.

Importantly, all conditions are positive for Gold and Silver.

With Gold the obvious is the correct assessment. When will $1,300 flip from
being resistance to being support? On an intra day basis, using kitco.com data,
Gold has traded above that level. Intra day a price of $1,310, kitco.com basis,
is needed to make this flip. Doing so would likely convert more money
to bullish on Gold.

Similar situation in Silver. When will $18 become support rather than resistance?
On an intra day basis Silver has traded above that level. Price to watch for
is $18.1, kitco.com basis. A move to that level would go a long way toward
making $18 new support.

New web cast is available above.


22 April 2016

$Gold:   $1,244
One Year % Change:   +4%   
200-Day Moving Average: $1,146   +$ 98  
Intermediate Signal Oscillator:   64%   Neutral
Short-Term Signal Oscillator: 66%   Neutral

$Silver:   $17.3
One Year % Change:   + 9%
200-Day Moving Average: $14.95  +$2.35  
Intermediate Signal Oscillator:   97%   Overbought             
Short-Term Signal Oscillator:   91%   Overbought

For comparison one year % change:
NASDAQ 100   +2%
S&P 500   -0%

Given that $Gold is in a bull market, we brought back our short-term oscillator.
Be careful with this one. It is meant to give some guidance on extremely short-term
moves. Investors should focus on the intermediate term oscillator.

Silver this past week confirmed the bull market in Gold. Silver both broke through
$17 to a new cycle intra day high of $17.78, kitco.com basis. Second, the
year-to-year percentage change went positive. Both of these actions were important,
and reinforced the view that bull markets in both metals now exist.

This past week the teenage traders at speculative funds tried to resurrect the view
that the dollar will appreciate based on Federal Reserve raising interest rates. That
futile effort caused metals and commodities to retreat on Thursday. That action
was overdue as all were over bought.

Prices to watch are $17.8 for Silver and first $1,272 for Gold with a second price of
interest of $1,285. Moves through those prices would encourage more buying.


8 April 2016

$Gold:   $1,238
One Year % Change:   + 4%   
200-Day Moving Average: $1,140   +$ 98  
Intermediate Signal Oscillator:   60%  Neutral
Short-Term Signal Oscillator:   90%  Overbought

$Silver:   $15.3
One Year % Change:   - 5%
200-Day Moving Average: $14.9  +$0.43  
Intermediate Signal Oscillator:   41%   Neutral                
Short-Term Signal Oscillator:   68%   Neutral

Despite the excellent performance of Gold and the equities related to Gold,
the investment community continues to pray for the Federal Reserve to save
them from their portfolios. Clearly the investment world has changed in
past 8 months. Fantasy stocks no longer reign supreme. What that all means is
that Gold has still not moved into mainstream thinking.
When $Gold cross $1,300, they will start becoming bullish.

On Gold, important price to watch for is $1,286.

On Silver, important prices to watch for $16.25.

Also, 14 April is next release date for U.S. CPI.
Could be a surprise, and last good number on US inflation.


25 March 2016

$Gold:   $1,216
One Year % Change:   +2%   
200-Day Moving Average: $1,137   +$ 79  
Intermediate Signal Oscillator:   21%, Oversold, Buy Signal Possible Next Week
Short-Term Signal Oscillator: 2% Oversold Buy Signal Monday

$Silver:   $15.2
One Year % Change:   -10%
200-Day Moving Average: $14.9  +$0.28  
Intermediate Signal Oscillator:   38%   Neutral                
Short-Term Signal Oscillator:   6% Oversold, Buy Signal Monday

For comparison one year % change:
NASDAQ 100   -1%
S&P 500   -3%

Given that $Gold is in a bull market, we are bringing back our short-term oscillator.
Be careful with this one. It is meant to give some guidance on extremely
short-term moves. Investors should focus on the intermediate term oscillator.

Teenager traders needed something to trade last week so they went back to
the dollar is going up as the FOMC raises interest rates story line. This story is
getting tired and worn, and is an indication of the juvenile trading mentality of
the Street. In any event, that thinking pushed the dollar up and gave traders a
reason to further sell Gold. As it had been seriously over bought previously,
this move was not entirely unexpected.

This thinking will be creating an opportunity in Gold in the coming week. Further,
as FOMC is only going to raise rates twice this year, and that is somewhat doubtful,
attention will turn to other factors. For example, in 2015 the U.S. trade deficit
with China was a record $365 billion. Currencies of nations with that size trade
deficit do not over time appreciate.


18 March 2016

$Gold: $1,252
Signal Oscillator:  53%  Neutral
200-Day Moving Average:   $1,137   +$115

$Silver: $15.84
Intermediate Oscillator:   79% Slightly Over Bought
200-Day Moving Average:   $14.93   +$0.91

Obviously we did not get an intermediate buy signal for $Gold this week as
the FOMC announcement pushed $Gold up. Change in policy on interest rates
ended any doubts that dollar rally was over. Dollar had already peaked in January.

Mailed out March issue of Value View Gold Report on Tuesday. In it was first
explanation of our new price targets for the coming year.
We are using $1,900-2,100 for early 2017, sometime in January to March.

Updated web cast at top of page.

Silver made an important move this morning to a high of $16.23. It needs to move
through $16.25-16.50, and this was first attempt at that resistance. Silver high
observable on kitco.com silver page.


5 March 2016

$Gold:   $1,259
One Year % Change:   +5%   
200-Day Moving Average: $1,133   +$126  
Signal Oscillator:   69%, Neutral, Overbought

$Silver:   $15.5
One Year % Change:   -4%
200-Day Moving Average: $15   +$0.5  
Signal Oscillator:   43%   Neutral, Oversold

Perhaps the most amazing part of the recent Gold rally is the continuing denial
of its existence on the part of the investment and business media. With $Gold
having risen by more than 20% from the low, a new bull market has started.
That reality is rarely reported. Gold now in Wave 1 of an Elliot Major Wave III
with target of $1,900-$2,100 in January/February 2017.

Gold is now correcting from intra day $1,280, and needs to do so. Markets do
not go straight up. They surge into new price territory and then consolidate

On Silver, important prices to watch are $16 and $16.5.


$Gold is priced as it was in 2007.

Read at this link:

$Gold: Year 2007 Again  
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NEW    US Inflation: Setup To Upset Link:  US Inflaton