The Value View Gold Report
The premier newsletter on Gold. Published monthly and delivered to you by email.
We cover Gold in U.S. $, Canadian $, Euros, British Pounds, Chinese Yuan, and Indian Rupee.
Analytical facts only, to aid you in buying Gold.

We are Bullish on Gold! We turned bullish in 2015 when most analysts were still bears!
OUR FORCAST IS NOW $GOLD AT $1,900-2,100 IN 2017.

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Our latest Webcast at this link(23 June):
Schmidt Webcast
READ: Ned's Random Gold Thoughts
can be found at the bottom.

Ned's Random Gold Thoughts

Our Basic Position is BULLISH!


24 June 2016

$Gold:   $1,1318
$Silver:    $17.73
       
Year-to-Year % Change:
$Gold   +12%
$Silver   +12%
S&P 500   -5%
NASDAQ 100   -8%


Today we don’t need to say much about charts or resistance. No price resistance
exists now. At one point last night $Gold was up more than a hundred dollars
as every last drop of bodily fluids was squeezed out of the shorts.
To that we simply say:   ROFLMAO

No resistance exist to prevent price of Gold going higher. That said, no market
moves straight up.  Investors need to use the corrections and consolidations
that will develop to add to Gold positions. That means our buy signals will
be especially valuable in the coming year.

We expect that $1,400 will be next level where Gold might hesitate.

We reassert our forecast that Gold will go above $1,900 in 2017.

Link to web cast at top has been updated to latest one.


17 June 2016

$Gold: $1,293
% Change Year Ago: +8%
200-Day Moving Average   $1,176   +$117
Short-Term Oscillator:    78%   Overbought                         
Intermediate Oscillator:   84%   Overbought

$Silver:   $17.40
% Change Year Ago: +8%
200-Day Moving Average: $15.40   +$2.00
Short-Term Oscillator: 82%   Overbought
Intermediate Oscillator:   86%   Overbought

% Change Year Ago For Comparison:
S&P 500: -2%
NASDAQ 100:  -2%                   

FOMC demonstrated that it lacks any intellectual integrity. Failure to act on
U.S. interest rates in June means that no action will take place before September.
This action gives Gold a big, bright green light to move higher. Gold promptly
made a new cycle high at $1,316.
              
In doing so Gold became extremely overbought, as one would expect at a
new cycle high. On Thursday some kind of correction from that high should
have been expected. Reaction was stronger than it should have been as the Street
temporarily declared Brexit dead. It is not.

All of this action is essentially good. Move to well above $1,300 means that
level is no longer significant resistance. That level should now become a floor
for Gold. With the Federal Reserve abandoning any pretense of being a disciplined
central bank, $Gold’s path of least resistance is up. But always remember,
markets do not move in a straight line.


10 June 2016

$Gold: $1,273
% Change Year Ago: +8%
200-Day Moving Averag   $1,171   +$102
Short-Term Oscillator:   100%   Overbought                         
Intermediate Oscillator:   79%   Neutral / Overbought

$Silver:   $17.30
% Change Year Ago: +8%
200-Day Moving Average: $15.33   +$1.97
Short-Term Oscillator: 100%   Overbought in short-term
Intermediate Oscillator:   76%   Neutral / Overbought

% Change Year Ago For Comparison:
S&P 500: -0%
NASDAQ 100:  -0%   

On Wednesday, 15 June, FOMC is likely to raise U.S. interest rates by 0.25%.
With the July meeting in the middle of the Democratic national convention, any
move is unlikely at that time. No meeting in August. September would be the next
meeting at which rates could be raised if no action is taken in June. Unlikely
FOMC will wait that long.

Increasingly investors are coming to understand that raising rates could have
extremely negative impact on bond and stock prices. Investors are nervous.
The only haven around is Gold. Investors now have their last chance to get
out of those fantasy stocks dominating the NASDAQ 100.

Could Gold drop on a rate increase? Yes. Gold has rallied strongly, so some kind of
setback from an overbought condition is possible. Should it drop and develop
oversold condition investors should use it to buy.

Price levels of importance: Gold $1,310   Silver $18.1


4 June 2016

$Gold: $1,243
% Change Year Ago: +6%
200-Day Moving Average: $1,167   +$76
Short-Term Oscillator:   100%   Overbought Strong Move on
Friday                         
Intermediate Oscillator:   43%   Neutral           

$Silver:   $16.40
% Change Year Ago: +2%
200-Day Moving Average: $15.26   +$1.14
Short-Term Oscillator:   94%   Overbought in short-term
Intermediate Oscillator:   39%   Neutral

% Change Year Ago For Comparison:
S&P 500: +0%
NASDAQ 100:  -0%   

Lesson from Friday’s US job report. Street economists know no more about the
economy than the last person that served you a hamburger in a bag. Forecasts
were so bad as to confirm a total lack of forecasting skill. Remember, do not let
economists manage your money.

Odds of US rate increase on 15 June did drop. But, if FOMC does not raise rates
on 15 June next date for a possible rate increase is 21 September. That all means
the dollar will continue to weaken. Dollar’s rally was clearly broken on Friday
All of this is very supportive of Gold.

Remember too, the NASDAQ 100, all the Street’s favorites, is extremely
vulnerable to a rate increase! Gold is the alternative to the negative returns
coming in the U.S. stock market.


29 May 2016
Writing Trading Thoughts this weekend.
Goes out on Monday


20 May 2016

$Gold: $1,252
% Change Year Ago: +4%
200-Day Moving Average: $1,162   +$90
Short-Term Oscillator:   12%   Oversold    Buy Signal 23 May
Intermediate Oscillator:   28%   Moving to Oversold

$Silver:   $16.45
% Change Year Ago: -4%
200-Day Moving Average: $15.18   +$1.27
Short-Term Oscillator:   7%   Oversold    Buy Signal
Intermediate Oscillator:   23%   Moving to Oversold

% Change Year Ago For Comparison:
S&P 500:  -3%
NASDAQ 100:  -3%   

Teenage traders trotted out again the notion that the Federal Reserve will raise interest
rates in June, and the dollar will soar. Per this group the FOMC would have already
raised rates “a dozen times”. This simplistic thinking is what we expect out of these
traders. However, the whole concept of the relationship of a currency value and
interest rates deals with real interest rates, not nominal. Latest reading on U.S.
Median CPI from FRB Cleveland is that over the past year the Median CPI has risen
2.45%. U.S. interest rates will still be deeply negative even if FOMC raise
rates by 0.25% in June. Longer term fundamentals point to a weaker dollar.

As a consequence of the thrashing about in markets by these teenage traders, Gold and
Silver were sold off. Short-term oscillator giving a buy signal on both Gold and Silver.
That may be all that is needed. Intermediate oscillator is moving to oversold next week,
but may not get there.

Recorded a webcast with Cris Sheridan for www.financialsense.com Should be on site
in next few days.


6 May 2016

$Gold:   $1,285
One Year % Change:   +8.5%
200-Day Moving Average: $1,155   +$130  
Intermediate Signal Oscillator: 81%   Overbought
Short-Term Signal Oscillator: 77%   Overbought

$Silver:   $17.35
One Year % Change:   + 7%
200-Day Moving Average: $15.09  +$2.26  
Intermediate Signal Oscillator:   61%   Overbought             
Short-Term Signal Oscillator:   43%   Overbought

For comparison one year % change:
NASDAQ 100   -2%
S&P 500   -2%

On balance, the dollar has been declining for weeks. It had reached a seriously
over sold condition against the 12 currencies we follow. While fundamentally that
is the correct direction for the dollar, it was in need of a bounce to correct that
over sold condition. That is what has been happening this week, and that has
temporarily capped Gold.

Importantly, all conditions are positive for Gold and Silver.

With Gold the obvious is the correct assessment. When will $1,300 flip from
being resistance to being support? On an intra day basis, using kitco.com data,
Gold has traded above that level. Intra day a price of $1,310, kitco.com basis,
is needed to make this flip. Doing so would likely convert more money
to bullish on Gold.

Similar situation in Silver. When will $18 become support rather than resistance?
On an intra day basis Silver has traded above that level. Price to watch for
is $18.1, kitco.com basis. A move to that level would go a long way toward
making $18 new support.

New web cast is available above.


22 April 2016

$Gold:   $1,244
One Year % Change:   +4%   
200-Day Moving Average: $1,146   +$ 98  
Intermediate Signal Oscillator:   64%   Neutral
Short-Term Signal Oscillator: 66%   Neutral

$Silver:   $17.3
One Year % Change:   + 9%
200-Day Moving Average: $14.95  +$2.35  
Intermediate Signal Oscillator:   97%   Overbought             
Short-Term Signal Oscillator:   91%   Overbought

For comparison one year % change:
NASDAQ 100   +2%
S&P 500   -0%

Given that $Gold is in a bull market, we brought back our short-term oscillator.
Be careful with this one. It is meant to give some guidance on extremely short-term
moves. Investors should focus on the intermediate term oscillator.

Silver this past week confirmed the bull market in Gold. Silver both broke through
$17 to a new cycle intra day high of $17.78, kitco.com basis. Second, the
year-to-year percentage change went positive. Both of these actions were important,
and reinforced the view that bull markets in both metals now exist.

This past week the teenage traders at speculative funds tried to resurrect the view
that the dollar will appreciate based on Federal Reserve raising interest rates. That
futile effort caused metals and commodities to retreat on Thursday. That action
was overdue as all were over bought.

Prices to watch are $17.8 for Silver and first $1,272 for Gold with a second price of
interest of $1,285. Moves through those prices would encourage more buying.


$Gold is priced as it was in 2007.

Read at this link:

$Gold: Year 2007 Again  
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Email: ned@valueviewgoldreport.com